Degree of Certainty

A 2025 AFI Conservatory Thesis Film

50 years ago,

a small group of people had the chance to save the world.

They decided against it,

and created the massive environmental and misinformation crisis we live in today.

Story

In the early 1980s, during a major oil glut, young risk analyst Jackson Miller finds himself on shaky ground at APEX, a leading US oil company. With the company’s profits plummeting, Jackson fears for his job, but a discovery by the climate research division offers him a chance to prove his worth. Armed with alarming data about the impact of fossil fuel combustion on global temperatures, Jackson crafts a comprehensive report, hoping to secure his place at APEX. However, what starts as a bid for survival turns into something far more dangerous when his report is used to fuel a climate denial campaign. As the stakes rise, Jackson is forced to confront a moral crossroads—will he fight for the truth or become complicit in a campaign that could shape the future of the planet?

Pitch Deck

Support Us

Be a part of our creative journey! The American Film Institute is a nonprofit organization, your generous contribution to our thesis film can help bring our story to life—and it may be tax-deductible for you.

Our Goal

We are aiming to raise $37,000 by the end of the year to support the production of our film. With your help, we can meet this goal as we plan to begin shooting at the start of May 2025.

Contribute Directly

There are three ways to make donations. The quickest option is by credit or debit card. You can also donate through ACH or wire transfer, or by mailing a check.

In-Kind Donation

Instead of supporting us with money, you can also contribute by donating goods or services. These include production needs such as equipment, food, site rental, and crew; and post-production needs such as VFX, sound design, sound mixing, and finishing services.

Just like monetary contributions, the value of the donated good or service may be tax-deductible for you!

Corporate Gift Matching

Your donation could go twice as far with a Corporate Gift Matching program (also known as matching grant) from your employer! Many companies match employee donations, doubling or even tripling the impact. We have a non-exhaustive list of companies that offer matching grants—if your employer is on it, you could help us even more without giving extra. Take a moment to check and make your contribution go further!

If you have any question regarding matching grant, you can email our producer Maxwell Kagan at [email protected].

Supporter Rewards

By supporting our film, you’ll also receive some exclusive perks from our team! No matter how big or small your contribution is, any amount helps to bring this story to life and we would like to show our appreciation for your support.

$1 – $249

Our Sincere Thanks & Appreciation

A Donor Acknowledgment Letter from the American Film Institute (which can be used for tax deduction purposes)

A Personal Thank You Letter signed by every member of the team

Early preview link to the finished film

$250 – $1,000

All perks from the previous tier

Personalized Thank You video from the team recorded during production

Social Media Shoutout

Special Thanks Credit

Invitation to an exclusive screening of the finished film with a talkback from the team and select members of the cast

$1,000 – $2,500

All perks from the previous tiers

A commemorative gift from the Degree of Certainty team

A signed copy of the script by writer/director Simon Schneider

Link to our Behind The Scenes

$2,500 – $4,999

All perks from the previous tiers

An Associate Producer credit

2 tickets to the AFI Premiere of Degree of Certainty

$5,000+

All perks from the previous tiers

An Executive Producer credit

An opportunity to visit set or rehearsal

Access to exclusive pre-production materials – any of which can be signed by members of our creative team upon request

Donate Now

Our Team

Simon Schneider

Director & Writer

Lia Kulakauskas

Co-writer

Maxwell Kagan

Producer

Eliot Grigo

Cinematographer

Jason Luo

Editor

Previous Work

Watch the trailer for our writer/director Simon Schneider’s award winning short film, Made in Germany.

Made in Germany is the winner of the 2022 Audience Award at the Max Ophüls Preis Film Festival and the winner of the Fest Award at the FEST New Directors New Film Festival.

American Film Institute Conservatory

The American Film Institute is a non-profit organization that champions the future of the moving image as an art form and believes in the revolutionary power of visual storytelling to share diverse perspectives, inspire empathy and drive culture forward. The AFI Conservatory is the graduate-level program inside the institute that trains the future generation of narrative filmmakers. It counts Ari Aster, Patty Jenkins, Darren Aronofsky, Edward Zwick, Terrence Malick and David Lynch as Alumni and is ranked the #1 film school in America.

The AFI thesis film is the crowning achievement of this two-year tenure and showcases in a rigorous nine-month collaborative process the mastery of filmmaking achieved by each fellow. The 15-minutes films are showcased each year at AFI FEST, get screened at national and international film festivals and receive recognition worldwide.

AFI thesis films have been awarded with 18 Student Academy Awards, 2 Academy Awards and 10 Oscar nominations. Notable AFI Thesis Films include Ari Aster’s breakout debut short THE STRANGE THING ABOUT THE JOHNSONS, the Academy Award nominated film DAY ONE, Max Barbakow and Andy Siara’s THE DUKE, Chloe Okuno’s SLUT and Halyna Hutchins’ film HIDDEN, along with Leo Behrens’ SKIN, which just won the Gold Metal at the 2023 Student Academy Awards.

Alumni Recognition

Academy Awards^®

15 Nominations

4 Wins

Emmy Awards^®

87 Nominations

19 Wins

Major Festivals

350 Alumni on 481 Films

AFI DOCS, AFI FEST, Berlin, Cannes, London, New York, Sundance, SXSW, Telluride, Toronto, Tribeca and Venice

Festivals updated as of Jan. 1, 2024

Awards updated as of Mar. 11, 2024

Watch AFI Thesis Films

Learn More about the Conservatory

Get in Touch

Send us a message! Our producer Maxwell Kagan will reach out with more information.
You can also email Maxwell directly at [email protected]

Degree of Certainty

Story