Degree of Certainty
A 2025 AFI Conservatory Thesis Film
50 years ago,
a small group of people had the chance to save the world.
They decided against it,
and created the massive environmental and misinformation crisis we live in today.
Story
In the early 1980s, during a major oil glut, young risk analyst Jackson Miller finds himself on shaky ground at APEX, a leading US oil company. With the company’s profits plummeting, Jackson fears for his job, but a discovery by the climate research division offers him a chance to prove his worth. Armed with alarming data about the impact of fossil fuel combustion on global temperatures, Jackson crafts a comprehensive report, hoping to secure his place at APEX. However, what starts as a bid for survival turns into something far more dangerous when his report is used to fuel a climate denial campaign. As the stakes rise, Jackson is forced to confront a moral crossroads—will he fight for the truth or become complicit in a campaign that could shape the future of the planet?
Support Us
Contribute Directly
Be a part of our creative journey! The American Film Institute is a nonprofit organization, your generous contribution to our thesis film can help bring our story to life—and it may be tax-deductible for you.
Donate via Credit/Debit Card
Click the button below to donate using your credit or debit card on AFI.com.
Please make sure you have selected in support of AFI Thesis Films and AFI Thesis Film 2523-DEGREE OF CERTAINTY from the dropdown menus.
If you would also like to cover the 2.5% card processing fee, please check the box at bottom of the donation form—every bit helps!
After donating, please make sure to email our producer Maxwell Kagan at [email protected] to confirm the receipt of your donation.
Donate via ACH or Wire Transfer
Donations to productions can be made via bank-to-bank wire transfer. Please be sure to reference our production number and name 2523 Degree of Certainty on the transfer. The easiest and most direct way to initiate a wire transfer is to provide the information listed below, in person, to a banking center.
Once the transfer is initiated, please forward all transfer information via email to our producer Maxwell Kagan at [email protected] to confirm the receipt of your donation. A donor acknowledgement letter for tax purposes will be issued after the transfer is received.
Donate via Check
Please make your check payable to American Film Institute and note in the memo that the donation is for 2523 Degree of Certainty. A donor acknowledgement letter for tax purposes will be issued after the check is received.
After sending the check, please make sure to email our producer Maxwell Kagan at [email protected] to confirm the receipt of your donation.
Please mail your check to:
American Film Institute
C/O 2523 Degree of Certainty
2021 N Western Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90027
In-Kind Donation
Instead of supporting us with money, you can also contribute by donating goods or services. These include production needs such as equipment, food, site rental, and crew; and post-production needs such as VFX, sound design, sound mixing, and finishing services.
Just like monetary contributions, the value of the donated good or service may be tax-deductible for you!
Donate Goods or Services
Message our producer Maxwell Kagan to inquire about in-kind donations.
You can also email Maxwell at [email protected]
Supporter Rewards
By supporting our film, you’ll also receive some exclusive perks from our team! No matter how big or small your contribution is, any amount helps to bring this story to life and we would like to show our appreciation for your support.
$1 – $249
Our Sincere Thanks & Appreciation
A Donor Acknowledgment Letter from the American Film Institute (which can be used for tax deduction purposes)
A Personal Thank You Letter signed by every member of the team
$250 – $1,000
All perks from the previous tier
Early preview link to the finished film
Personalized Thank You video from the team recorded during production
Social Media Shoutout
Special Thanks Credit
$1,000 – $2,500
All perks from the previous tiers
Invitation to an exclusive screening of the finished film with a talkback from the team and select members of the cast (based on availability)
A commemorative gift from the Degree of Certainty team
A signed copy of the script by writer/director Simon Schneider
Link to our Behind The Scenes
$2,500 – $4,999
All perks from the previous tiers
An Associate Producer credit
2 tickets to the AFI Premiere of Degree of Certainty
$5,000+
All perks from the previous tiers
An Executive Producer credit
An opportunity to visit set or rehearsal
Access to exclusive pre-production materials – any of which can be signed by members of our creative team upon request
Our Team
Simon Schneider
Director & Writer
Lia Kulakauskas
Co-writer
Maxwell Kagan
Producer
Eliot Grigo
Cinematographer
Jason Luo
Editor
Simon Schneider
Director & Writer
Graduated 2021 with a Bachelor’s degree in film directing from ifs international film school Cologne, Germany. He worked as a director and writer for German public television and participated in the young filmmakers program TP2 Talentpool. His short film MADE IN GERMANY won the 2022 Audience Award at the Max Ophüls Preis Film Festival and the Fest Award at the FEST New Directors New Films Festival. His work has been screened at film festivals worldwide and been broadcasted on networks like ARD, ARTE and Disney+. Since 2023 he is a directing fellow at the AFI American Film Institute Conservatory, Class of 2025.
Filmography
(Excerpt)
Silent
Director
Horror | 9 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Random Act of Kindness
Director, Writer
Comedy/Satire | 12 min | 2023
AFI Conservatory
Made in Germany
Director, Writer, Producer
Comedy/Satire | 24 min | 2022
Ifs internationale filmschule köln GmbH
I’m With You
Director
Drama | 18 min | 2019
Ifs internationale filmschule köln GmbH
While We Are Here
Director, Writer, Producer
Comedy | 7 min | 2018
Ifs internationale filmschule köln GmbH
True
Director, Writer, Producer
Thriller | 20 min | 2018
Dare-To-Fail-Production GbR
Awards
(Excerpt)
Artist Scholarship of the DAAD German Academic Exchange Service 2023
Fulbright Scholarship Nominee for Foreign Students 2023
American Film Institute Conservatory Scholarship Recipient 2024
Audience Award Winner, Film Festival Max Opühls Prize for “Made in Germany” 2022
Jury Prize Winner: Best Middle length Film, Filmfest Bremen for “Made in Germany” 2023
Producers Network Award Winner, Robert Bosch Foundation for “Made in Germany” 2020
Pitching Award Winner, FEST New Directors New Films Festival for “Made in Germany” 2020
Lia Kulakauskas
Co-writer
Holds a Bachelor’s in Audiovisual Studies from the University of São Paulo, Brazil. Since college, she has worked in different storytelling roles as an editor, writer and director. Her works cutting films include internationally renowned features, such as MADALENA and PENDULAR. She also edited TV-Shows for HBO, Paramount as well as the Netflix original series 3% and KISSING GAME. GROUNDED, her first short film as a screenwriter, was screened internationally and won the Audience Award in Tiradentes. She is one of the directors of FERAS, a series in which she also collaborated as a screenwriter. Kulakauskas created and directed the two-season documentary series PAPERBACK TRAVEL. Since 2023 she is a screenwriting fellow at the AFI American Film Institute Conservatory, Class of 2025.
Filmography
(Excerpt)
Deep Tissue
Writer
Action | 9 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Platinum
Writer
Drama/Coming-Of-Age | 13 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Invisible Girl
Writer
Dramatic/Comedy | 12 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Fears
Writer, Director, Editor
Dramatic/Comedy | TV Series, 13 x 30 min | 2019
MTV Brasil
Grounded
Writer
Comedy | 15 min | 2014
Copan
Director, Writer
Documentary | 13 min | 2007
Awards
(Excerpt)
Fulbright Scholarship Award for Foreign Students 2023
American Film Institute Conservatory Scholarship Recipient 2023
Best TV Series Editing Award at Brazilian Critic Awards for “Kissing Game” 2020
Best Film Editing at 11th Curta Taquary (Brazil) for “Tower” 2017
Tribeca Film Institute Mentorship Award at BRLab 2016 Audience Award at Tiradentes Film Festival for “Grounded” 2014
Language Research Award at the Brazilian University Film Festival for “Copan” 2007
Maxwell Kagan
Producer
Holds a Bachelors degree in Media Storytelling from New York University’s Gallatin School of Individualized Study. He has an extensive background working in film and TV development at companies such as Marc Platt Productions and Sight Unseen. Prior to enrolling in AFI’s producing program, he spent three years working in entertainment law and management for artists including Charlie Puth and Lauren-Spencer Smith. Since 2023 he is a producing fellow at the AFI American Film Institute Conservatory, Class of 2025. There his script, HUNDRED MILLION DOLLAR MAN, was an official selection of the 2025 AFI Thesis Committee.
Filmography
(Excerpt)
Hundred Million Dollar Man
Writer
Comedy | 15 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
End of the World
Producer, Writer
Comedy | 10 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Cliff
Producer
Comedy | 10 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Avec Le Temps
Producer
Drama | 2 min | 2023
AFI Conservatory
Random Act of Kindness
Producer
Comedy/Satire | 12 min | 2023
AFI Conservatory
Out of Reach
Media Coordinator
Documentary | 90 min | 2022
GTN Creative, LLC
Awards
(Excerpt)
American Film Institute Conservatory Scholarship Recipient 2023
Finalist for the Roy. W. Dean Grant for “Degree of Certainty”
Nominee for Best Dramatic Short at City of Angels Film Festival for “Breaking & Entering”
Finalist at the ETHOS Film Awards for “Breaking & Entering”
Eliot Grigo
Cinematographer
Originally from Rockport, Maine, Grigo received a BFA in Film, from Syracuse University in 2017. He studied 35mm filmmaking in Prague at FAMU, and attended photographic workshops at Rochester Institute of Technology and Maine Media. Since then, Grigo has worked in New York with brands such as Nike, Calvin Klein, and Christian Dior, while shooting narrative shorts. Most notably, LA MUJER DE HECTOR (HECTOR’S WOMAN), which premiered and was nominated for ‘Best of Festival’ at the 2021 Palm Springs International Film Festival; a winner at the 2022 Miami Film Festival; and received a 2022 Vimeo Staff Pick. Since 2023 he is a Cinematography Fellow at the AFI Conservatory, Class of 2025.
Filmography
(Excerpt)
The Screen
Cinematographer
Experimental | 2 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Finding Beast
Cinematographer
Documentary | 18 min | 2022
AFI Conservatory
Classmates
Cinematographer
Drama | 19 min | 2022
Columbia University
Knock
Cinematographer
Horror | 9 min | 2021
Independent
Hector’s Woman
Cinematographer
Drama | 18 min | 2019
Columbia University
For My Lovers
Cinematographer
Drama | 10 min | 2016
FAMU, in association with Barandov Studios
Awards
(Excerpt)
Nominated for ‘Best of Festival’ at Palm Springs International Film Festival 2021
Winner of WarnerMedia One Fifty Award for ‘Hector’s Woman’ at Miami Film Festival 2022
Winner for ‘Best Documentary Short’ at Kino Short Film for ‘Finding Beast’ 2021
Winner for ‘Best Short Film’ at New Faces New Voices for ‘Hector’s Woman’ 2021
Winner for ‘Best Director’ at Tide Film Festival 2022
Honorable Mention at the Woodstock Film Festival for ‘Hector’s Woman’ 2021
Jason Luo
Editor
Recent graduate of the School of the Art Institute of Chicago, with a Bachelor of Fine Arts degree in Film, Video, New Media, and Animation. Co-founding Dope Film Studio with like-minded filmmakers, he has pursued projects offering many creative and commercial opportunities. Skilled as an editor, sound designer, and cinematographer, Jason’s portfolio includes award-winning short films FOUND YOU and PERSONA, with FOUND YOU being a 2022 Independent Shorts Awards finalist. Since 2023 he is a editing fellow at the AFI American Film Institute Conservatory, Class of 2025.
Filmography
(Excerpt)
Bring My Grandma Back!
Editor
Comedy | 10 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Prospect
Editor
Drama | 11 min | 2024
AFI Conservatory
Random Act of Kindness
Editor
Comedy/Satire | 12 min | 2023
AFI Conservatory
Found You
Editor, Cinematographer
Drama | 6 min | 2022
Dope Film Studio
Five Point Seven
Editor, Cinematographer
Thriller | 14 min | 2022
Dope Film Studio
Pegasus
Editor, Cinematographer
Horror | 8 min | 2018
School of the Art Institute of Chicago
Awards
(Excerpt)
Annual Award Finalist, Independent Shorts Awards for “Found You” 2022
Honorable Mention: Best Cinematography, Oniros Film Awards for “Persona” 2021
Honorable Mention: Cinematography, Los Angeles Film Awards for “Persona” 2021
Previous Work
Watch the trailer for our writer/director Simon Schneider’s award winning short film, Made in Germany.
Made in Germany is the winner of the 2022 Audience Award at the Max Ophüls Preis Film Festival and the winner of the Fest Award at the FEST New Directors New Film Festival.
American Film Institute Conservatory
The American Film Institute is a non-profit organization that champions the future of the moving image as an art form and believes in the revolutionary power of visual storytelling to share diverse perspectives, inspire empathy and drive culture forward. The AFI Conservatory is the graduate-level program inside the institute that trains the future generation of narrative filmmakers. It counts Ari Aster, Patty Jenkins, Darren Aronofsky, Edward Zwick, Terrence Malick and David Lynch as Alumni and is ranked the #1 film school in America.
The AFI thesis film is the crowning achievement of this two-year tenure and showcases in a rigorous nine-month collaborative process the mastery of filmmaking achieved by each fellow. The 15-minutes films are showcased each year at AFI FEST, get screened at national and international film festivals and receive recognition worldwide.
AFI thesis films have been awarded with 18 Student Academy Awards, 2 Academy Awards and 10 Oscar nominations. Notable AFI Thesis Films include Ari Aster’s breakout debut short THE STRANGE THING ABOUT THE JOHNSONS, the Academy Award nominated film DAY ONE, Max Barbakow and Andy Siara’s THE DUKE, Chloe Okuno’s SLUT and Halyna Hutchins’ film HIDDEN, along with Leo Behrens’ SKIN, which just won the Gold Metal at the 2023 Student Academy Awards.
Alumni Recognition
Academy Awards®
15 Nominations
4 Wins
Emmy Awards®
87 Nominations
19 Wins
Major Festivals
350 Alumni on 481 Films
AFI DOCS, AFI FEST, Berlin, Cannes, London, New York, Sundance, SXSW, Telluride, Toronto, Tribeca and Venice
Festivals updated as of Jan. 1, 2024
Awards updated as of Mar. 11, 2024
Get in Touch
Send us a message! Our producer Maxwell Kagan will reach out with more information.
You can also email Maxwell directly at [email protected]